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FIBRIL
A AA Skype: leo_1911   E-mail:leo.biostat@gmail.com
http:\\www.biometrica.tomsk.ru\

10 (.98-117 ) " -.rar", " -.rtf", Word- EXCEL-, .

, , .

Model  Information

Data Set                                   WORK.FIBRIL
Response Variable                            Gruppa
Number of Response Levels                     2
Model                                     binary logit
Optimization Technique                        Fisher's scoring

, . , . .. , , .

Number of Observations Read         172
Number of Observations Used 171

  , 172, 171 . . .. GRUPPA 1  2 ( . ).

Response Profile

Ordered        Total
Value    Gruppa     Frequency

1               1     55
2               2  116

  .

Probability modeled is Gruppa='1'.

  , " PR_69A=1".

Stepwise Selection Procedure

  , .

, (Intercept ). (Intercept) . .

Step 0. Intercept entered:

Model Convergence Status

Convergence criterion (GCONV=1E-8) satisfied.

-2 Log L = 214.809

Analysis of Maximum Likelihood Estimates

                    Standard Wald                Standardized
Parameter DF Estimate   Error    Chi-Square Pr > ChiSq  Estimate

Intercept   1 -174.0        79.32338 4.8101 0.0283

  , () (Intercept) 1.1071 <0,001. (Standardized Estimate) .

Analysis of Maximum Likelihood Estimates

Parameter          Label

Intercept             Intercept:   Gruppa=1

        Residual Chi-Square Test

Chi-Square DF Pr > ChiSq

141.6985    76 <.0001

, . ,   - (Score Chi-Square).

Analysis of Effects Eligible for Entry

Score
Effect DF Chi-Square Pr > ChiSq

PR_2  1 0.3553 0.5511
PR_8  1 0.1566 0.6924
PR_9  1 0.2605 0.6098
PR_10 1 0.0828 0.7735
PR_11 1   29.4061 <.0001
PR_23 1 13.1918 0.0003
PR_24 1 15.8449 <.0001
PR_25 1 8.7730 0.0031
PR_26 1 19.9191 <.0001
PR_27 1 13.7758 0.0002
PR_36 1 2.1375 0.1437
PR_37 1 0.1860 0.6663
PR_38 1 3.9706 0.0463
PR_39 1 5.5659 0.0183
PR_40 1 2.8745 0.0900
PR_41 1 0.1315 0.7169
PR_42 1 1.6402 0.2003
PR_43 1 1.5021 0.2203
PR_50 1 0.0672 0.7954
PR_55 1 0.5848 0.4444
PR_56 1 0.9713 0.3244
PR_57 1 0.1799 0.6714
PR_58 1 0.0015 0.9690
PR_59 1 0.5173 0.4720
PR_60 1 4.0358 0.0445
PR_1A 1 1.4084 0.2353
PR_12A 1 0.5952 0.4404
PR_13A 1 0.0010 0.9746
PR_14A 1 1.9501 0.1626
PR_15A 1 0.4529 0.5010
PR_16A 1 0.1057 0.7451
PR_17A 1 0.1150 0.7345
PR_18A 1 8.0575 0.0045
PR_19A 1 17.5929 <.0001
PR_20A 1 4.5939 0.0321
PR_21A 1 0.0554 0.8138
PR_22A 1 2.5471 0.1105
PR_28A 1 6.0251 0.0141
PR_29A 1 2.2448 0.1341
PR_30A 1 0.0966 0.7559
PR_31A 1 1.6114 0.2043
PR_35A 1 3.2770 0.0703
PR_44A 1 1.6734 0.1958
PR_45A 1 0.0067 0.9349
PR_46A 1 0.4752 0.4906
PR_47A 1 0.0050 0.9438
PR_48A 1 0.0351 0.8515
PR_49A 1 1.0162 0.3134
PR_51A 1 1.0108 0.3147
PR_52A 1 10.12550.0015
PR_53A 1 0.9773 0.3229
PR_54A 1 0.5789 0.4467
PR_61A 1 0.2285 0.6326
PR_62A 1 36.8744 <.0001
PR_63A 1 52.6025 <.0001
PR_64A 1 60.2569 <.0001
PR_65A 1   2.1444 0.1431
PR_67A 0 . .

PR_64A -. (Step 1. Effect PR_64A entered:).

Step 1. Effect PR_64A entered:

Model Convergence Status

Convergence criterion (GCONV=1E-8) satisfied.

Model Fit Statistics

          Intercept
                       Intercept          and
Criterion Only          Covariates

AIC   216.800 22.823
SC   219.951  57.382
-2 Log L 214.809    0.823

R-Square 0.3131 Max-rescaled R-Square 0.4645

Testing Global Null Hypothesis: BETA=1

Test Chi-Square DF Pr > ChiSq

Likelihood Ratio 58.9714 1 <.0001
Score        60.2569 1 <.0001
Wald        43.6563 1 <.0001

Analysis of Maximum Likelihood Estimates

                    Standard Wald               Standardized
Parameter DF Estimate Error     Chi-Square  Pr > ChiSq Estimate

Intercept    1   -177.8     82.1673  4.6816       0.0305
PR_64A 1   5.6394       2.5879   4.7489      0.0293 11.1376

(Intercep PR_64A), , , - , , . PR_64A :  BETA = -177,8 + 5,6394 * PR_64A. PR_69A=1 :

beta - PR_64A (). .

, , .

10.

Step 10. Effect VAR21 entered:

Model Convergence Status

Convergence criterion (GCONV=1E-8) satisfied.

Model Fit Statistics

Intercept
Intercept and
Criterion Only Covariates

AIC   216.809 39.982
SC   219.951 61.974
-2 Log L 214.809 25.982

R-Square 0.6685 Max-rescaled R-Square 0.9347

Testing Global Null Hypothesis: BETA=0

Test      Chi-Square DF Pr > ChiSq

Likelihood Ratio 188.8272 6 <.0001
Score     111.5165 6 <.0001
Wald     13.3830   6 0.0373

Analysis of Maximum Likelihood Estimates

               Standard Wald            Standardized
Parameter DF Estimate Error Chi-Square Pr > ChiSq Estimate

Intercept   1 -43.6313 12.4837 12.2155 0.0005
PR23   1 6.4902 2.5357 6.5512 0.0105   0.8983
PR57   1 0.8535 0.3498 5.9547 0.0147    0.4603
PR29A  11.7432 0.6646 6.8801 0.0087   1.2067
PR63A  12.7041 0.9074 8.8798 0.0029   5.3404
PR38    1 3.6342 1.3618 7.1213 0.0076   1.3761
PR60    1 3.1312 1.0154 9.5090 0.0020  1.5907

. (Estimate) . (Intercept), . , Wald, , (Standardized Estimate) . , .

Odds Ratio Estimates

Point      95% Wald
Effect Estimate Confidence Limits

VAR13   658.661   4.574 >999.999
VAR71 2.348   1.183 4.660
VAR9A 5.716  1.554  21.025
VAR10A 14.940  2.523 88.463
VAR79A 37.870 2.625 546.364
VAR82A 22.902 3.130 167.578

. "" " NDI":

 

  . : Percent Concordant = 99.6 c = 0.996, , 99,6% .

Association of Predicted Probabilities and Observed Responses

Percent Concordant 99.6    Somers' D 0.992
Percent Discordant      0.4     Gamma 0.992
Percent Tied          0.0   Tau-a     0.435
Pairs             6380    c        0.996

Residual Chi-Square Test

Chi-Square DF Pr > ChiSq

24.6614   70 1.0000

Analysis of Effects Eligible for Removal

Wald
Effect DF Chi-Square Pr > ChiSq

VAR13 1   6.5512 0.0105
VAR71 1   5.9547 0.0147
VAR9A 1   6.8801 0.0087
VAR10A 1 8.8798 0.0029
VAR79A 1 7.1213 0.0076
VAR82A 1 9.5090 0.0020

 

NOTE: No (additional) effects met the 0.05 significance level for removal from the
model.

Hosmer and Lemeshow Goodness-of-Fit Test

Chi-Square DF Pr > ChiSq

0.7423 6 0.9935

NOTE: In calculating the Expected values, predicted probabilities less than 1E-6 and
greater than 0.999999 were changed to 1E-6 and 0.999999 respectively.

Fit Statistics for SCORE Data

         Total Log        Error
Data Set  Frequency Likelihood Rate AIC       AICC BIC

WORK.FIBRIL 171     -12.9911   0.0409  39.98213 40.66506 62.01459

                          Max-Rescaled Brier
Data Set SC         R-Square R-Square AUC Score

WORK.FIBRIL 61.97378 0.668542 0.934677   0.995925 0.025835










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0.12727
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1.12727
1.14545
1.16364
1.18182
1.21818
1.29091
1.30909
1.34545
1.36364
1.38182
1.40000
1.41818
1.43636
1.47273
1.50909
1.56364
1.58182
1.60000
1.69091
1.80000
1.85455
1.87273
1.88229
1.87367
1.86505
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1.93103
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1.89655
1.87931
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1.84483
1.83621
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1.81897
1.74138
1.73276
1.72414
1.71552
1.69828
1.68966
1.63793
1.62069
1.61207
1.54310
1.53448
1.52586
1.50862
1.44828
1.43966
1.42241
1.41379
1.40517
1.39655
1.37931
1.35345
1.31897
1.30172
1.29310
1.25000
1.18966
1.14655
1.00000

7.85714
6.87500
6.11111
5.50000
4.58333
3.43750
3.23529
2.89474
2.75000
2.61905
2.50000
2.39130
2.29167
2.11538
1.96429
1.77419
1.71875
1.66667
1.44737
1.25000
1.17021
1.14583
1.11277
1.10310
1.09342
1.07155
1.05054
1.04124
1.02122
0.99301
0.97462
0.96584
0.94828
0.93966
0.93103
0.90517
0.89655
0.87931
0.86207
0.85345
0.84483
0.83621
0.82759
0.81897
0.74138
0.73276
0.72414
0.71552
0.69828
0.68966
0.63793
0.62069
0.61207
0.54310
0.53448
0.52586
0.50862
0.44828
0.43966
0.42241
0.41379
0.40517
0.39655
0.37931
0.35345
0.31897
0.30172
0.29310
0.25000
0.18966
0.14655
0.00000

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

. , . 112, . 1 ( 1)   " . ",   1. , 6,8962 , 1 0,99899. , 41 56 , 1, 1,00000. .. 1. 2 , 2 1,00000. .. 2.

                        GRUPPA BETA

GRUPPA

Value of the
Linear
Predictor

Individual
Probability:
GRUPPA=1

Individual
Probability:
GRUPPA=2

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127
128
129
130
131
132
133
134
135
136
137
138
139
140
141
142
143
144
145
146
147
148
149
150
151
152
153
154
155
156
157
158
159
160
161
162
163
164
165
166
167
168
169
170
171
172

112
139
72
16
51
95
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160
77
15
63
101
25
96
111
115
137
159
64
70
150
156
158
74
163
62
71
157
148
149
36
122
26
45
17
109
24
4
90
23
85
110
131
171
12
98
103
27
29
81
108
153
113
67
167
22
40
126
69
35
61
146
161
21
13
42
60
75
145
66
68
155
168
82
58
165
14
107
1
18
104
154
88
59
79
57
6
48
134
121
135
78
164
19
50
99
136
38
44
138
144
147
56
143
49
84
132
2
3
20
87
89
105
106
128
142
152
100
30
28
31
46
47
55
86
125
133
34
39
92
54
65
116
130
140
151
5
41
80
8
127
33
43
83
114
117
129
141
169
170
172
32
166
97
11
124
76
162
10
73
120
53
91
123
7
9
37
102
52
93
119
118

.
1
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0.18421

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

, . , 0,0640799. 1 0,9242413.

GRUPPA
1-2               N
                Obs Variable              Label N Mean
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
1              55 BETA Value of the Linear Predictor   55 9.0792020
IP_1                              Individual Probability: CL_2A=1 55 0.9242413
IP_2                             Individual Probability: CL_2A=2 55 0.0757587

2             116 BETA Value of the Linear Predictor   116 -11.9642449
IP_1                            Individual Probability: CL_2A=1 116 0.0359201
IP_2                            Individual Probability: CL_2A=2 116 0.9640799
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

, , . 4- 6 , .

                                 Table of FACT_P by PRED_P

FACT_P
PRED_P
    

Frequency
Expected
Cell Chi-Square
Percent
Row Pct
Col Pct

GRUPPA=1 GRUPPA=2 Total
GRUPPA=1

51
17.368
65.123
29.82
92.73
94.44

4
37.632
30.057
2.34
7.27
3.42

55
GRUPPA=2

3
36.632
30.877
1.75
2.59
5.56

113
79.368
14.251
66.08
97.41
96.58

116
Total 54 117 171

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Frequency Missing = 1

Statistics for Table of FACT_P by PRED_P

Statistic                  DF Value Prob
------------------------------------------------------------------------
Chi-Square               1 140.3080 <.0001
Likelihood Ratio Chi-Square    1 156.7683 <.0001
Continuity Adj. Chi-Square     1 136.1671 <.0001
Mantel-Haenszel Chi-Square  1 139.4875 <.0001
Phi Coefficient                0.9058
Contingency Coefficient         0.6713
Cramer's V                 0.9058

Fisher's Exact Test
---------------------------------------------------
Cell (1,1) Frequency (F) 51
Left-sided Pr <= F     1.0000
Right-sided Pr >= F        6.396E-35

Table Probability (P)        1.839E-32
Two-sided Pr <= P       6.396E-35

Effective Sample Size  =    171
Frequency Missing      =    1

 

ROC-,   Percent Concordant = 99.6 c = 0.996, .  

 

 


:

. . .

.., .., ...

 

Francis Galton

(16.02.1822-17.01.1911)



(15.03.1860-13.04.1906)



(27.03.1857-27.04.1936)

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